谈股论金

在股市里冲浪我的教训,第一不能盯市,第二不能着急买。
重新来过 - 01/30/22 10:39

我白天睡觉多, 是个长处。但有时候还是要看, 怎么控制冲动呢?

读公司的报表是个好办法啊。 读进去就顾不得看了。 Edgar是SEC的网站, 看着老旧,其实相当Functional, 想看市场的时候就去看这个网站上发表的各种报告。 比如我想学习半导体行业,看这看那,都不如去SEC看各个公司自己的陈述。

读了报表,就更加不想买。 美股实在太贵,我这次一口气憋长, 就是不买!Forward PE不到历史均线, 我就不买!

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lovNordstrom - 01/31/22 01:12

我也觉得很多股这两年已经翻了好几倍,现在买太贵了。退回到2年前的价钱还比较合理。

重新来过 - 01/31/22 10:22

今天不小心,又管不住自己买了XLNX,因为Deal已经批准, 等着给AMD收购。 AMD明天出报表,应该不错,现在交易在32倍的Forward PE,确实不低,但考虑到这种公司的能力, 也不敢期望PE降太多。

Actually, I think AMAT is not too expensive. 35% of its total revenue derives from Samsung and TSMC. TSMC has guided that its capital expenditure would grow at an annualized 15%+ for the next 5 years. Not sure about Samsung. Intel is another large client. Intel has announced about $20B capital expenditure for the next decade, not too bad. As such, there is no reason to be pessimistc on AMAT's growth, even though growth won't be as high as it was in 2021. 

AMAT is trading at <20 times of forward PE 2022. 

The only concern i have is whether Chinese competitors would somehow grab market share from AMAT. Otherwise, i think it is a good buy. 

lovNordstrom - 01/31/22 14:46

你真是对这些公司的动向研究得不少。我一点都不知道amd买xilinx的事。

tsla开始暴涨了,我记得你买了它的put, 小心一点。tsla一旦涨就会涨一阵子。

重新来过 - 01/31/22 16:28

哈哈,不是, 我卖了它的Put。 

lovNordstrom - 01/31/22 16:35

我果然还是没搞清楚put. haha. 😂

重新来过 - 01/31/22 17:09

买PUT是买跌, 卖PUT是买涨。 

lovNordstrom - 02/01/22 01:07

原来你是卖了put. 好。